End Term Examination Spring 2021

Programme & Batch: IBM 2020

Course Name: Business Statistics

[Course Code: BS-DSC-165]

MAXIMUM MARKS: 50 TIME: 24 HOURS

Instructions to students:

· This is a take-home examination.

· Attempt all problems. Each problem contains 10 marks.

· Solve problems in separate tabs of a single Excel file, and mail the Excel file to [email protected]. The file name should be .xls

· Do not forget to highlight the final answers with yellow colour.

· This question paper comprises of 2 pages (including this page).

1. For the following data find the linear trend (the equation). Then improve the trend by first taking 3 yearly and then 5 yearly moving averages (Specify R2 values for the 3 scenarios). Also predict the revenue for the year 2015 considering the random fluctuations using both additive and multiplicative model.

2+2+2+(2+2) = 10

Year

Revenue (billions)

2001

1.44

2002

1.58

2003

1.55

2004

1.47

2005

1.39

2006

1.41

2007

1.40

2008

1.39

2009

1.42

2010

1.34

2011

1.28

2012

1.36

2013

1.15

2014

1.27

2. (a) Establish an MLR model to predict Infant Mortality based on the given data considering adult literacy %, finishing primary school % and GNP per capita. Find which of these predictors are not significant at 5% significance level (give reason).

3+2 = 5

(b) Drop that predictor and run MLR again. Write the predictive model again. Could you improve the prediction? Explain in terms of standard error and adjusted R2

3+2 = 5