Consider the following fact: 80% of small businesses fail within the first three years. A friend is unaware of this fact, and wishes to quit his consulting job and open a restaurant in Los Angeles (or pick another city youre more familiar with). As a good friend, you want to be sure that overconfidence is not playing a significant role in his or her decision. Compose a letter/email to your friend to help him or her navigate the pitfalls of overconfidence. In writing this letter, make sure you address the following (and skip the letter intro and conclusion).

Why might your friend be overconfident about the success of this venture?
What are the most important sources of his/her overconfidence?
Which of these sources do you believe will produce the most resistance to your persuasion?